CMCSA

Comcast is spinning off its cable networks into a new company called Versant Media Group. The author argues that historical spin-off behavior suggests Versant could experience 20-30% forced selling in the first few months of trading from index and dividend funds, creating a buying opportunity. The article details the reasons why spinoffs create structural advantages for value investors, including forced selling by institutions, lack of analyst coverage, and the potential for the parent company to hide a good business. The author believes that once the mechanical selling pressure subsides, the stock price will mean-revert toward its intrinsic value.

主要经营地

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

详细的生意模式

美国综合通信与媒体：宽带/有线（现金牛）+NBCUniversal内容与主题公园；通过订阅费、广告与内容变现

护城河

本地宽带网络与规模优势；但视频业务受“断线潮”挤压，竞争来自光纤与5G FWA

估值水平

FCF/EV 4.0%；TEV/EBITDA 5.59；P/E 5.86

EV/Market Cap

1.85x

网络观点

✅作者强调低估：约6x P/E、自由现金流收益高，且债务利率低于股权回报隐含。🌟估值修复+资本回报（回购/分红）是主逻辑。

AI的观点

✅价值框架清晰：若宽带净新增回稳，现金流可支撑回购。⚠️结构性风险在于宽带竞争与内容业务周期。🔎看：宽带ARPU/流失率、资本开支强度、流媒体亏损收敛与资产处置可能性。

原文发布时间

2025-12-03