denisdoroshenko.substack.com/@denis_d.
Bio
Denis D. is an investor who shares his investment ideas on his Substack, "Value & Momentum Portfolio". He focuses on the Digital Infrastructure, SaaS, and Defense sectors. He has a background in M&A, having previously worked at Lazard and Rothschild.
Ideas
5 Ideas
Celestica Inc. (CLS) - Denis D.
🌍 主要经营地： 加拿大（EMS/ODM）
📊 生意模式： 电子制造服务：设计/制造/供应链/后端服务；近年受益于AI数据中心硬件需求。
🏰 护城河： ✅ 执行与客户关系（交付/良率/成本）。
⚠️ EMS护城河弱、竞争激烈；AI相关业务可能客户集中。
💰 估值水平： FCF/EV≈1.9%（Unlevered）；TEV/EBITDA≈27.41x；P/E≈41.30
📈 EV/Market Cap： 1.01x
💡 网络观点： ✅ 作者偏“价值+动量”框架：把其视为AI数据中心概念股，财报超预期但估值偏高、存在周期反转风险。
🤖 AI观点： 高预期定价（FCF/EV≈1.9%、P/E≈41）。核心判断：AI硬件需求结构性 vs 周期性。若客户集中且利润对单平台敏感，需要更高安全边际；更稳妥是等景气回落压估值后再评估。
✍️ 作者： Denis D.（Value & Momentum Portfolio，Substack作者）。
Celestica (CLS) Executive Summary: A Momentum Stock Riding the AI Wave
Celestica is an Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and Original Design Manufacturer (ODM) serving two segments: CCS (67% of revenue) for hyperscalers and ATS (33%) for various industries. The company is experiencing a massive rally due to the AI data center boom, with its Hardware Platform Solutions (HPS) growing 63% in 2024. Key strengths include 13 consecutive earnings beats, strong positioning in the AI mega-trend, a robust balance sheet, and market-leading ODM capabilities. However, concerns include a stretched valuation (P/E of 53x), high customer concentration (2 customers = 39% of revenue), significant recent insider selling (~$150M+ in one week), and parabolic price action creating correction risk. The stock is considered a high-risk, high-reward momentum play.
How to play the "AI Energy Trade"?
Vertiv is a pure-play on the data center, with ~80% of revenue derived from the industry. It dominates the liquid cooling market, which is crucial for high-density GPU clusters, leading to organic revenue growth of ~30% YoY. The company's backlog has swelled to over $10 billion, and it trades at a premium as the only large-cap stock entirely tied to data center build-out.
Deep Dive: Microsoft (MSFT): Full Valuation Case & Monte Carlo Simulation
Microsoft is a global leader in software and cloud services. Despite recent earnings beats, the stock dropped ~13% due to concerns about Azure's growth deceleration (31% vs. guided 37-38%), massive CapEx for AI with an unclear ROI timeline, and operating margin pressure. Strengths include Azure AI leadership, the OpenAI partnership, and a massive Copilot TAM. However, the high CapEx, slowing growth, and intensifying competition are significant concerns. A DCF model suggests a fair value around $340-360, indicating the current price of $423 already bakes in significant optimism. The base case valuation is around $450-480, while the bear case is $350-380. The stock is currently priced for moderate optimism.
Buy Rating: Axon Enterprise (AXON): Why the Ecosystem is Just Getting Started
Axon Enterprise is a leader in law enforcement technology, known for its TASER devices and body cameras. The investment thesis is based on its dominant market position (serving 95% of US police departments), a sticky ecosystem with high switching costs, and a successful transition to a SaaS model with recurring revenue now at 85% of the total. The company has a strong track record of revenue growth (25-30% YoY) and is expanding its TAM into new areas like fire departments and federal agencies. While valuation is a concern (trading at 10x forward sales), its strong competitive moat, recurring revenue, and growth potential justify a premium.