SW
SwissBear
其他@swissbear
Bio
SwissBear is a private investor who runs the 'Swiss Transparent Portfolio' Substack. They focus on finding and analyzing scalable, capital-light, high-quality managed compounders in strong jurisdictions, with a particular interest in micro/mid-caps, odd-lot, and special situations. They also own real estate and share insights from their real investment accounts.
Ideas
1 Ideas
Cenovus Energy Inc
主要经营地
Calgary, Canada
详细的生意模式
加拿大一体化油气：油砂上游+炼化下游，通过产量与炼厂利用率赚取周期性利润/现金流
护城河
油砂资产寿命长；若蒸汽油比（SOR）低则成本更具优势；下游炼化可对冲部分油价波动
估值水平
FCF/EV 2.6%；TEV/EBITDA 6.97；P/E 17.43
EV/Market Cap
1.15x
网络观点
✅MEG并购强化油砂平台，强调同业最低SOR与协同（至2028年年化约$400M）。🌟看点：协同兑现+大宗商品周期支撑FCF与回购。
AI的观点
✅属于“资源股+资本回报”命题：关键是成本曲线位置与纪律。⚠️油价/差价（WCS）、政策/碳成本与并购整合风险。🔎看：净债变化、回购/分红框架与油砂边际成本。
原文发布时间
2025-12-05